Every One Knows There Is A War Coming

I have been interested in the future for a long time. Especially once I figured I was going to live the rest of my life there. So Michael Totten's bit on what the Israelis expect in their near future was of great interest to me.

While the United States is psychologically preparing itself to lose the war in Iraq, the Middle East may be plunging headlong toward a catastrophe.

Israel is preparing for an imminent war with Iran, Syria and/or their non-state clients.

Israeli military intelligence has projected that a major attack could come from any of five adversaries in the Middle East. Officials said such a strike could spark a war as early as July 2007.

On Sunday, Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin told the Cabinet that the Jewish state faces five adversaries in what could result in an imminent confrontation. Yadlin cited Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and Al Qaida.

"Each of these adversaries is capable of sparking a war in the summer," Yadlin was quoted as saying.

I think that a general Middle East war is in our future. It will make last summer's action seem like a very small affair indeed.

So what is the word on the Israeli street?

UPDATE: A reader emails:

My daughter just came from spending five months at Ben Gurion University in Beer-Sheva. She had a wonderful time studying, hiking, camping, student demonstrations, working in soup kitchens, skiing up north, petra...etc. She came home two weeks ago and just matter of factly stated that "everyone knows there is a war coming."

That is pretty much how the "Israeli street" feels right now according to just about everything I've heard and read lately.

There are a couple of reasons (at least) why you might want to open a new front in a war.

1. You are winning - press the enemy on all fronts.
2. You are losing - provide a distraction.

It is hard to say which it is without an insiders look at both camps. If I was betting on this I'd favor the second point. Our enemies are not far from internal collapse. They have to move. The one thing you cannot do with bayonets is sit on them - Talleyrand approximately.

Will the U.S. get drawn in? Odds favor it because we are already in. I believe our success in Iraq means that a new front must be opened. Since a major new front against the US is not possible the only thing left is to go after our major ally in the area.

The US is making progress in Iraq. There is unrest in Iran. Our enemies may not be on the ropes but they are being severely punished. So this move to open a new front could be a strategic blunder due to overstretch unless the jihadis are hoping that with an Israeli war on the front pages they can lay low in Iraq and regroup.